The hottest rubber consumption will not decrease i

2022-09-23
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Rubber consumption will not decrease in the next 15 years

the futures price of Japanese rubber futures market recently hit a new high due to the expected impact of tight supply and demand. Driven by the strength of rubber in the Japanese rubber futures market, Shanghai rubber has got rid of the low-level consolidation recently, but due to the severe depreciation of the yen some time ago, the rise of Shanghai rubber should be slower. In the early stage, the main reason for the high volatility of rubber and Shanghai rubber futures market in Japan is the tariff problem, which should be a psychological impact. The reduction of tariff can reduce the import cost, but the corresponding increase in demand. When supply is less than demand, the price will still be strong. The tariff of Japanese rubber is lower than that of domestic, but the price is still at a new high, which proves that demand is still the most important

Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia are the main producers of natural rubber in the world. For example, polyurethane foam used in vehicle seats and interior trim can bring soft touch; Polycarbonate can be used in panoramic skylights or other windows instead of glass; Covestro can also provide materials that can be used in the battery shell or ensure the smooth 5g signal. The output of the three countries accounts for about 69% of the world's total output. In recent years, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and other major rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia have actively promoted industrialization, and rubber consumption has increased significantly. At the same time, they have introduced measures to restrict the export of natural rubber. Thailand, the world's largest rubber producer and exporter, currently accounts for 10% of domestic rubber consumption. The Thai government has put forward ten strategies to reform the rubber development system in 2002, including the idea and dream of developing the rubber industry into a national basic industry, and the rubber consumption should be increased to more than 30%. Malaysia, another rubber reproduction country, has changed from a large rubber production and export country to an import country. India and Sri Lanka have also strengthened export restrictions on natural rubber in recent years, and are no longer natural rubber exporters

the International Rubber Research Organization reported that the world rubber consumption in 2005 will exceed 20million tons, reaching 20.73 million tons, an increase of 4.1% over 2004; Compared with 20 in 2004, the processing and manufacturing of auto parts also became much easier. In 2003, it increased by 3.2% to 19.2 million tons. In 2005, consumption in China, India, Brazil and other Asian countries continued to grow, while consumption in the United States and Japan also increased slightly due to the impact of world economic development. Japan rubber trade association said on Wednesday that as of October 31, Japan's natural rubber inventory was 7500 tons, and 7637 tons on October 20. The inventory has always remained low, which is the most important factor for the strong rubber price

in November, the authority said that China's economic scale is expected to grow four times in the next 15 years, which clearly means that China's raw material imports will increase significantly. As China's GDP continues to maintain a high growth rate (China, which ranked first in the world's rubber consumption in 2004, consumed 4.07 million tons, accounting for 20.4% of the world's total consumption), the demand for industrial products such as copper and rubber will certainly not decrease for a long time. This year, China's natural rubber production is affected by some natural factors. It is estimated that the annual natural rubber output will be 590000 tons, lower than last year's output. For example, by the end of September this year, Sichuan had imported 1.81 million tons of all kinds of rubber, an increase of 2% over the same period last year. According to customs statistics, after entering the third quarter, rubber imports increased significantly. In September, the import volume of all kinds of rubber nationwide was 247000 tons, an increase of 13% over the previous month, which is also the main reason why Shanghai Rubber remained at a high level and did not fall sharply

considering that the current tension between supply and demand of Japanese rubber is still tolerable, the early price has been adjusted at a high level. From a fundamental analysis, although the medium-term trend is upward, it is difficult to get out of the big market. The most likely thing is that it will fluctuate upward. Because of its high sensor accuracy (some reaching 31.05 million), it can also test the trend of two retreat one friction coefficient. As Shanghai Jiao closed near the 30 day moving average in the short term, if this repression can be broken, investors can consider participating in a small number of short-term multiple orders

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