The hottest rubber and plastic industry was cold a

At the beginning of 2015, the rubber and plastic market was weak as a whole, continuing the weak market in the fourth quarter of 2014, and the market continued to decline, with most products falling sharply. On the one hand, the continuous decline of crude oil has pressured the downstream rubber and plastic industry, and the cost collapse has also aggravated the wait-and-see mood of downstream practitioners; Moreover, the demand has entered the off-season, the downstream operating rate is low, and few people in the factory have used it all the time without hoarding goods. The social inventory has fallen to a low level, and the delivery and trading are deserted; In addition, the negative economic atmosphere has intensified. At present, the promotion effect of the central bank's interest rate cut again on February 1 on the market is still not expected to be ideal. China's commodity supply and demand index in January 2015 released by commodity data provider business news agency also confirmed the economic downturn: (BCI) was -0.64, with an average increase of -4.05%. The manufacturing economy was in a contraction state compared with the previous month, The advantages of the process brought about by the economic downturn risk and high precision and high reproducibility are more important. The rubber and plastic industry was also shrouded in an atmosphere of economic gloom and fell flat

according to the monitoring, in the list of commodity prices rise and fall in January 2015, there was a total of one commodity rising in the rubber and plastic sector on a month on month basis, and the rising commodity was natural rubber (standard 1) (0.19%)

there are 21 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 14 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 63.6% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were butadiene rubber (-19.24%), pet (-15.94%) and PP wire drawing (-15.36%)

the average rise and fall in this month was -8.23%

the decline of rubber deepened

rubber still continued the decline in December last year, especially synthetic rubber, with a significant decline in special rubber. CIS polybutadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber and SBS fell significantly (CIS polybutadiene -19.24%, styrene butadiene -11.83%, sbs-14.89%), and the slight rise of natural rubber did not bring much benefit to the entire rubber market. At present, the main factor restricting the rubber market is supply and demand. The huge surplus of supply and the inability of demand to follow up have brought the rubber market down

from the perspective of synthetic rubber, the market has been in a weak pattern since the second half of 2014, and the contradiction between supply and demand is the main factor that has enveloped the rubber market for a long time. This month, the main reasons for the decline of synthetic rubber are as follows: first, the weak pattern of international oil prices has suppressed the synthetic and special rubber industry chain, while the continuous decline in the price of synthetic rubber raw material butadiene has lost its cost support; The operating rate of downstream tires continued to decline, and faced with the sanctions of Europe and the United States and other countries on China's tire exports, resulting in weak external demand, which made the rubber market worse. In addition, near the Spring Festival, some merchants pressed down prices for the withdrawal of funds, resulting in a sharp decline in the rubber market this month

general plastics continued its decline

in general plastics, the five general plastics products fell across the board, with a decline of more than 5%, especially polyolefins, which fell significantly due to cost and demand, LLDPE (-7.93%), LDPE (-8.81%), HDPE (-13.08%), PP (-15.36%)

ps and ABS continued to decline this month, mainly due to the continuous decline of styrene. By the end of the month, the price of styrene fell to 6797 yuan/ton, and the cost of PS and ABS was severely frustrated; Secondly, Sinopec and PetroChina manufacturers have adjusted their prices one after another, and the market has mostly followed the manufacturers' reduction and sold goods at a profit; Third, the downstream demand side maintains rigid demand, and there is no stock phenomenon. February coincides with the Spring Festival holiday, and the downstream small and medium-sized enterprises are facing closing parking. The trading volume may not be high. It is expected that PS and ABS will be dominated by a downturn. Polyolefin continued to fall sharply: first, in terms of cost, crude oil continued to fluctuate downward, falling to $44/barrel by the end of the month. PP futures fell significantly in the first ten days of January, and the decline slowed down in the second ten days of January. The transaction price of the main contract was about 7200 yuan/ton by the end of the month, and the ex factory price of petrochemical was significantly reduced at the beginning and end of the month; Secondly, in terms of supply, 770000 tons of annual capacity units such as Sichuan Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical and Yanshan Petrochemical were shut down for maintenance at the beginning of the month, and 800000 tons of units such as Luoyang Petrochemical, Guangzhou petrochemical, Fushun Petrochemical and Jingmen Petrochemical were temporarily shut down in the middle of the month. The inventory of the two petrochemical companies fell to about 800000 tons when their functions and characteristics were not found, which had a certain impact on the supply of goods in the market; Third, in terms of demand, at present, the operating rate of most downstream enterprises continues to decline. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, some small and medium-sized enterprises have entered the closing work due to insufficient orders. In early February, small and medium-sized enterprises will usher in a centralized holiday. Film, plastic editing and injection molding enterprises have performed significantly, and the operating rate has decreased by about 3% compared with the previous month

the off-season trading of engineering plastics is sluggish

Engineering Plastics: in January 2015, the domestic engineering plastics market monitored by the business society mainly fell, and some commodity prices fell significantly. The prices of five engineering plastics products monitored by the rubber and plastic branch fell across the board: pet (-15.84%), PA6 (-11.48%), POM (-4.31%), PA66 (-3.85%), PC (-0.44%), and the engineering plastics sector index of the business society fell from 787 at the beginning of the month to 735 at the end of the month, The decline was 6.6%. The trading atmosphere in the engineering plastics market is generally weak

the main reasons for the downturn in the market of engineering plastics products this month are as follows: first, from the perspective of the industrial chain, pet and PA6, which are closely related to the price of raw materials and crude oil, fell the most. On the one hand, the cost decline dragged down, with ethylene glycol, the upstream raw material of pet, falling by 5.2%, PTA, falling by 4.06%, caprolactam, the upstream of PA6, falling by 15.6%, and adipic acid, the upstream of PA66, falling by 7.04%. Both caused serious negative effects on the cost, making the whole industrial chain green. Secondly, from the perspective of supply chain, the market of engineering plastics has been in a long-term downturn. Downstream factories purchase on demand and buy as needed. Dealers have fewer sources of goods on hand and are unable to raise market prices, such as pet, PA66, etc. Thirdly, some imported goods hit the domestic market. For a time, prices rose and fell in the market, and the quotation was chaotic. Some dealers chose small orders and low prices, such as PC, POM, etc. Industry insiders generally believe that the market situation in 2015 will be more severe than that in 2014. There will be less stock of engineering plastic products before the year, and dealers are generally bearish about the aftermarket. It is expected that the engineering plastic market will still fall before the lunar new year

analysts believe that the decline of the rubber and plastic market in January broke the industry's expectations for the rebound of the market in 2015. Especially in the first quarter, due to the impact of the lunar year, production went into the shutdown period, production and sales were not booming, and the rubber and plastic market was difficult to improve. The market was still in the downward channel. With the reduction of the space for crude oil decline, the rubber and plastic market may also enter a phased bottom, but the process of market bottoming was relatively long, At least in the first quarter, the market will fluctuate at the bottom, and the central bank's interest rate cut again confirms that each section of the chain should be able to bear twice the force that this section can bear. The economic side is not optimistic, and whether the later interest rate cut can produce more positive effects remains to be seen. In addition, the supply and demand side is still dominated by negative factors. In February, the market will enter the new year mode of sluggish production and sales, and the downstream demand will fall to the freezing point, The production and sales volume of the market will be sluggish. Based on the above factors, it is expected that the rubber and plastic market in February will still be adjusted and declined, but the space will continue to shrink

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