Rubber: bad news suppresses the increase of market supply
the failure of the production reduction agreement of rubber producing countries has increased the pressure on the supply side; Stricter environmental protection has weakened the driving force of the consumer side. Due to the superposition of bad factors, the 1801 contract of the main force of small Shanghai Rubber fell sharply, falling back to 13000 yuan/ton before stabilizing on the front line
the reduction of the table starts, and the expectation of raising interest rates at the end of the year is strong.
although the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in September did not take the action of raising interest rates, the reduction plan was approved and officially launched this month. At the same time, from the dot matrix chart of the Federal Reserve interest rate, the characteristics of "near Eagle far Dove" indicate that there will be an interest rate increase at the end of the year when the data are saved. Although the number of non farm payrolls in the United States fell to 33000 in September, the first negative growth in seven years, most institutions attributed this to the damage caused by the hurricane, and the economic operation is still on a benign track. CME fed observed that the federal funds rate futures showed that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in December was 91%. On the whole, the Federal Reserve has opened the door to scale down, which is superimposed with future interest rate hikes, indicating that the direction of liquidity easing has been setThe international rubber tripartite Council (ITRC) meeting, which attracted much market attention, was held in mid September. Although Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia decided to include Vietnam in ITRC, thereby expanding the organization's control over the global production of natural rubber, they failed to reach a consensus on reducing the production and export quota of natural rubber. Data show that in the first eight months of this year, the global production of natural rubber was 803.8 tons. Except for Thailand, the production of natural rubber in most ITRC member countries has achieved positive growth. At present, there are still differences among the member countries of the organization, and some member countries even tend to increase production, which leads to a decline in the expectation of the market for the follow-up meeting and believes that it is difficult for them to take more measures to intervene in the rubber price
turning to China, the import volume of natural rubber began to increase in August after four months of continuous decline. Data show that in August, China imported 462300 tons of Tianjiao into SAMPE Shanghai Branch, an increase of 24.49% month on month and 25.87% year on year. In September, the trading of standard rubber and mixed rubber cargo was active, especially the cargo negotiation from Indonesia was more, and the import volume of natural rubber is expected to climb to 500000 tons
environmental protection is becoming stricter, and the operating rate of tire enterprises has declined
according to the author's research on tire enterprises in Dongying, Dawang and other places in Shandong Province, due to the overweight of environmental protection, most factories have been restricted, and some of them have been restricted by as much as 50%. Some illegal tire enterprises even increased by 18.2% year-on-year; Gross profit of 4.713 billion yuan was ordered to stop production for rectification. In the past two months, tire prices have risen continuously, so that the resistance in the downstream has increased, and the recent trading is not optimistic. The overall inventory of tire enterprises is on the high side, and the enthusiasm for purchasing raw material Tianjiao declines
in view of the market pattern of strong supply and weak demand, it will take a long time for the bulls of the Shanghai Jiao 1801 contract to regain confidence, and the bottom is expected to oscillate after the holiday